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Economic Modeling & Trade Policy

CGE Modeling, Gravity Models Trade Econometrics, and Fiscal Policy Simulations

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Daftar Isi

BAB 01: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling
  • 02. Why: Hasil Simulasi CGE Berubah karena Pilihan Closure
  • 03. Outline: Model Computable General Equilibrium; Analisis Kuantitatif; Perencanaan Skenario; Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat; Dampak Distribusional; Sintesis Bukti
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Model Computable General Equilibrium; Perbandingan Perencanaan Skenario; Evaluasi Sintesis Bukti
  • 05. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Social Accounting Matrix
  • 06. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Sektor, Rumah Tangga, dan Faktor Produksi
  • 07. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Persamaan serta Asumsi Perilaku
  • 08. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Closure Rules
  • 09. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Kalibrasi dan Sensitivitas Parameter
  • 10. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Definisi Variabel dan Estimand
  • 11. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Spesifikasi Model Regresi
  • 12. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Confounding serta Endogenitas
  • 13. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Standard Error dan Ketidakpastian
  • 14. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Uji Sensitivitas Spesifikasi
  • 15. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Pemilihan Ketidakpastian Kritis
  • 16. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Sumbu Pembeda Antar Skenario
  • 17. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Konsistensi Logika Skenario
  • 18. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Pengujian Opsi dalam Beberapa Skenario
  • 19. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Indikator Awal Perubahan Arah
  • 20. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Biaya Langsung serta Opportunity Cost
  • 21. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Manfaat yang Dapat Dimonetisasi
  • 22. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Discounting dan Horizon Analisis
  • 23. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Dampak yang Tidak Dimonetisasi
  • 24. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Sensitivity Analysis atas Asumsi
  • 25. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Kelompok Penerima Manfaat
  • 26. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Kelompok Penanggung Biaya
  • 27. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Perbedaan Dampak Antar Wilayah
  • 28. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Efek Jangka Pendek dan Panjang
  • 29. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Pilihan Kompensasi serta Transisi
  • 30. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Protokol dan Pertanyaan Review
  • 31. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Strategi Pencarian yang Reproduktif
  • 32. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Kriteria Inklusi serta Screening
  • 33. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Penilaian Risiko Bias Studi
  • 34. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling: Sintesis Temuan serta Kepastian Bukti
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Confounding serta Endogenitas (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Hasil Simulasi CGE Berubah karena Pilihan Closure
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Model Computable General Equilibrium; Perencanaan Skenario; Sintesis Bukti
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Hasil Simulasi CGE Berubah karena Pilihan Closure
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling)

BAB 02: Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics
  • 02. Why: Estimasi Gravity Mengabaikan Zero Trade
  • 03. Outline: Model Gravity Perdagangan; Analisis Kuantitatif; Penilaian Dampak FTA; Global Value Chains; Data Skala Besar; Desain Penelitian Kebijakan
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Model Gravity Perdagangan; Perbandingan Penilaian Dampak FTA; Evaluasi Desain Penelitian Kebijakan
  • 05. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Trade Costs dan Variabel Bilateral
  • 06. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Multilateral Resistance
  • 07. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Zero Trade dan Pilihan Estimator
  • 08. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Fixed Effects
  • 09. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Interpretasi serta Batas Kausalitas
  • 10. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Definisi Variabel dan Estimand
  • 11. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Spesifikasi Model Regresi
  • 12. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Confounding serta Endogenitas
  • 13. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Standard Error dan Ketidakpastian
  • 14. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Uji Sensitivitas Spesifikasi
  • 15. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Tarif serta Hambatan Nontarif
  • 16. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Rules of Origin
  • 17. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Trade Creation dan Diversion
  • 18. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Distribusi Dampak Antar Sektor
  • 19. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Pemanfaatan Preferensi oleh Pelaku Usaha
  • 20. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Trade in Value Added
  • 21. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Backward dan Forward Linkages
  • 22. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Posisi dalam Rantai Produksi
  • 23. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Ketergantungan Input Impor
  • 24. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Pilihan Upgrading Industri
  • 25. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Sumber Data dan Keterwakilan
  • 26. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Data Linkage serta Identitas
  • 27. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Missingness dan Bias Cakupan
  • 28. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Validasi terhadap Sumber Pembanding
  • 29. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Reproducibility Pipeline Analisis
  • 30. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Pertanyaan dan Hipotesis Penelitian
  • 31. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Unit Analisis serta Pembanding
  • 32. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Pilihan Observasional atau Eksperimental
  • 33. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Strategi Identifikasi Hubungan Kausal
  • 34. Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics: Ancaman terhadap Validitas Temuan
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Confounding serta Endogenitas (Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Estimasi Gravity Mengabaikan Zero Trade
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Model Gravity Perdagangan; Penilaian Dampak FTA; Desain Penelitian Kebijakan
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Estimasi Gravity Mengabaikan Zero Trade
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Gravity Models & Trade Flow Econometrics)

BAB 03: Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment
  • 02. Why: Tarif Turun tetapi Pelaku Usaha Tidak Menggunakan Preferensi
  • 03. Outline: Penilaian Dampak FTA; Model Gravity Perdagangan; Model Computable General Equilibrium; Global Value Chains; Dampak Distribusional; Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Penilaian Dampak FTA; Perbandingan Model Computable General Equilibrium; Evaluasi Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat
  • 05. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Tarif serta Hambatan Nontarif
  • 06. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Rules of Origin
  • 07. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Trade Creation dan Diversion
  • 08. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Distribusi Dampak Antar Sektor
  • 09. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Pemanfaatan Preferensi oleh Pelaku Usaha
  • 10. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Trade Costs dan Variabel Bilateral
  • 11. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Multilateral Resistance
  • 12. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Zero Trade dan Pilihan Estimator
  • 13. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Fixed Effects
  • 14. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Interpretasi serta Batas Kausalitas
  • 15. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Social Accounting Matrix
  • 16. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Sektor, Rumah Tangga, dan Faktor Produksi
  • 17. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Persamaan serta Asumsi Perilaku
  • 18. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Closure Rules
  • 19. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Kalibrasi dan Sensitivitas Parameter
  • 20. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Trade in Value Added
  • 21. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Backward dan Forward Linkages
  • 22. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Posisi dalam Rantai Produksi
  • 23. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Ketergantungan Input Impor
  • 24. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Pilihan Upgrading Industri
  • 25. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Kelompok Penerima Manfaat
  • 26. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Kelompok Penanggung Biaya
  • 27. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Perbedaan Dampak Antar Wilayah
  • 28. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Efek Jangka Pendek dan Panjang
  • 29. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Pilihan Kompensasi serta Transisi
  • 30. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Biaya Langsung serta Opportunity Cost
  • 31. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Manfaat yang Dapat Dimonetisasi
  • 32. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Discounting dan Horizon Analisis
  • 33. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Dampak yang Tidak Dimonetisasi
  • 34. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment: Sensitivity Analysis atas Asumsi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Zero Trade dan Pilihan Estimator (Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Tarif Turun tetapi Pelaku Usaha Tidak Menggunakan Preferensi
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Penilaian Dampak FTA; Model Computable General Equilibrium; Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Tarif Turun tetapi Pelaku Usaha Tidak Menggunakan Preferensi
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Impact Assessment)

BAB 04: Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis
  • 02. Why: Ekspor Bruto Meningkat tanpa Kenaikan Nilai Tambah Domestik
  • 03. Outline: Global Value Chains; Data Skala Besar; Kebijakan Investasi Asing; Kebijakan Semikonduktor; Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Global Value Chains; Perbandingan Kebijakan Investasi Asing; Evaluasi Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 05. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Trade in Value Added
  • 06. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Backward dan Forward Linkages
  • 07. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Posisi dalam Rantai Produksi
  • 08. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Ketergantungan Input Impor
  • 09. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Pilihan Upgrading Industri
  • 10. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Sumber Data dan Keterwakilan
  • 11. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Data Linkage serta Identitas
  • 12. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Missingness dan Bias Cakupan
  • 13. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Validasi terhadap Sumber Pembanding
  • 14. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Reproducibility Pipeline Analisis
  • 15. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Motif serta Jenis FDI
  • 16. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Batas Kepemilikan dan Screening
  • 17. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Spillover Teknologi
  • 18. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Insentif serta Additionality
  • 19. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Dampak pada Pelaku Domestik
  • 20. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Rantai Desain, Fabrikasi, dan Packaging
  • 21. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Konsentrasi Kapasitas Produksi
  • 22. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Insentif Investasi Industri
  • 23. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Kontrol Ekspor serta Akses Teknologi
  • 24. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Trade-Off Ketahanan dan Efisiensi
  • 25. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Permintaan serta Penawaran Tenaga Kerja
  • 26. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Upah dan Produktivitas
  • 27. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Mobilitas Keterampilan
  • 28. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Remitansi dan Brain Drain
  • 29. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Dampak Distribusi serta Integrasi Pekerja
  • 30. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Sumber Bahaya dan Eksposur
  • 31. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Probabilitas serta Besaran Dampak
  • 32. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Ketidakpastian Penilaian
  • 33. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Mitigasi dan Risiko Residual
  • 34. Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis: Pemicu Review serta Eskalasi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Missingness dan Bias Cakupan (Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Ekspor Bruto Meningkat tanpa Kenaikan Nilai Tambah Domestik
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Global Value Chains; Kebijakan Investasi Asing; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Ekspor Bruto Meningkat tanpa Kenaikan Nilai Tambah Domestik
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Global Value Chain (GVC) Analysis)

BAB 05: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks
  • 02. Why: Insentif FDI Diberikan tanpa Bukti Additionality
  • 03. Outline: Kebijakan Investasi Asing; Global Value Chains; Pemetaan Kerangka Hukum; Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat; Dampak Distribusional; Monitoring dan Evaluasi
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Kebijakan Investasi Asing; Perbandingan Pemetaan Kerangka Hukum; Evaluasi Monitoring dan Evaluasi
  • 05. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Motif serta Jenis FDI
  • 06. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Batas Kepemilikan dan Screening
  • 07. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Spillover Teknologi
  • 08. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Insentif serta Additionality
  • 09. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Dampak pada Pelaku Domestik
  • 10. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Trade in Value Added
  • 11. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Backward dan Forward Linkages
  • 12. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Posisi dalam Rantai Produksi
  • 13. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Ketergantungan Input Impor
  • 14. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Pilihan Upgrading Industri
  • 15. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Kewenangan serta Hierarki Aturan
  • 16. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Hak dan Kewajiban Pihak Terkait
  • 17. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Tanggal Efektif serta Peralihan
  • 18. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Konflik AntarInstrumen
  • 19. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Forum Peninjauan Keputusan
  • 20. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Biaya Langsung serta Opportunity Cost
  • 21. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Manfaat yang Dapat Dimonetisasi
  • 22. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Discounting dan Horizon Analisis
  • 23. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Dampak yang Tidak Dimonetisasi
  • 24. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Sensitivity Analysis atas Asumsi
  • 25. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Kelompok Penerima Manfaat
  • 26. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Kelompok Penanggung Biaya
  • 27. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Perbedaan Dampak Antar Wilayah
  • 28. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Efek Jangka Pendek dan Panjang
  • 29. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Pilihan Kompensasi serta Transisi
  • 30. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Theory of Change Program
  • 31. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Indikator Input hingga Outcome
  • 32. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Baseline serta Sumber Data
  • 33. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Rancangan Evaluasi Dampak
  • 34. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks: Penggunaan Temuan untuk Koreksi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Posisi dalam Rantai Produksi (Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Insentif FDI Diberikan tanpa Bukti Additionality
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Kebijakan Investasi Asing; Pemetaan Kerangka Hukum; Monitoring dan Evaluasi
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Insentif FDI Diberikan tanpa Bukti Additionality
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy Frameworks)

BAB 06: Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling
  • 02. Why: Skenario Nilai Tukar Tidak Menangkap Pembalikan Arus Modal
  • 03. Outline: Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran; Analisis Kuantitatif; Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Analisis Sanksi Ekonomi; Pasar Komoditas; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran; Perbandingan Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Evaluasi Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 05. Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran: Current Account dan Financial Account
  • 06. Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran: Perubahan Terms of Trade
  • 07. Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran: Aliran Modal serta Volatilitas
  • 08. Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran: Skenario Nilai Tukar
  • 09. Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran: Kerentanan Eksternal
  • 10. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Definisi Variabel dan Estimand
  • 11. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Spesifikasi Model Regresi
  • 12. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Confounding serta Endogenitas
  • 13. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Standard Error dan Ketidakpastian
  • 14. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Uji Sensitivitas Spesifikasi
  • 15. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Saldo Primer serta Kebutuhan Pembiayaan
  • 16. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Debt Dynamics
  • 17. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Asumsi Pertumbuhan dan Bunga
  • 18. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Contingent Liabilities
  • 19. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Stress Test Keberlanjutan Utang
  • 20. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Kaitan Yurisdiksi Transaksi
  • 21. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Pihak dan Sektor yang Dibatasi
  • 22. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Pengecualian serta Lisensi
  • 23. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Dampak Perdagangan serta Substitusi
  • 24. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Efek Kemanusiaan dan Ketidakpastian
  • 25. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Penentu Harga Global
  • 26. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Transmisi ke Harga Domestik
  • 27. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Volatilitas dan Ekspektasi
  • 28. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Instrumen Stabilisasi
  • 29. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Biaya serta Risiko Intervensi
  • 30. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Sumber Bahaya dan Eksposur
  • 31. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Probabilitas serta Besaran Dampak
  • 32. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Ketidakpastian Penilaian
  • 33. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Mitigasi dan Risiko Residual
  • 34. Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling: Pemicu Review serta Eskalasi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Confounding serta Endogenitas (Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Skenario Nilai Tukar Tidak Menangkap Pembalikan Arus Modal
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Nilai Tukar serta Neraca Pembayaran; Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Skenario Nilai Tukar Tidak Menangkap Pembalikan Arus Modal
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Exchange Rate & Balance of Payments Modeling)

BAB 07: Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability
  • 02. Why: Proyeksi Utang Mengabaikan Kewajiban Kontinjensi
  • 03. Outline: Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Pembiayaan Kebijakan; Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat; Perencanaan Skenario; Dampak Distribusional; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Perbandingan Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat; Evaluasi Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 05. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Saldo Primer serta Kebutuhan Pembiayaan
  • 06. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Debt Dynamics
  • 07. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Asumsi Pertumbuhan dan Bunga
  • 08. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Contingent Liabilities
  • 09. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Stress Test Keberlanjutan Utang
  • 10. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Baseline Belanja
  • 11. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Kebutuhan Dana Multiyears
  • 12. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Sumber Pendanaan
  • 13. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Prioritas dalam Batas Anggaran
  • 14. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Pengawasan Realisasi Belanja
  • 15. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Biaya Langsung serta Opportunity Cost
  • 16. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Manfaat yang Dapat Dimonetisasi
  • 17. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Discounting dan Horizon Analisis
  • 18. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Dampak yang Tidak Dimonetisasi
  • 19. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Sensitivity Analysis atas Asumsi
  • 20. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Pemilihan Ketidakpastian Kritis
  • 21. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Sumbu Pembeda Antar Skenario
  • 22. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Konsistensi Logika Skenario
  • 23. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Pengujian Opsi dalam Beberapa Skenario
  • 24. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Indikator Awal Perubahan Arah
  • 25. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Kelompok Penerima Manfaat
  • 26. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Kelompok Penanggung Biaya
  • 27. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Perbedaan Dampak Antar Wilayah
  • 28. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Efek Jangka Pendek dan Panjang
  • 29. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Pilihan Kompensasi serta Transisi
  • 30. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Sumber Bahaya dan Eksposur
  • 31. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Probabilitas serta Besaran Dampak
  • 32. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Ketidakpastian Penilaian
  • 33. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Mitigasi dan Risiko Residual
  • 34. Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability: Pemicu Review serta Eskalasi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Sumber Pendanaan (Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Proyeksi Utang Mengabaikan Kewajiban Kontinjensi
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Analisis Biaya dan Manfaat; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Proyeksi Utang Mengabaikan Kewajiban Kontinjensi
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Fiscal Policy Simulation & Debt Sustainability)

BAB 08: Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics
  • 02. Why: Migrasi Pekerja Terampil Menambah Pendapatan tetapi Mengurangi Kapasitas Lokal
  • 03. Outline: Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi; Analisis Kuantitatif; Keterampilan dan Pasar Kerja; Dampak Distribusional; Kebijakan Fiskal dan Utang; Monitoring dan Evaluasi
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi; Perbandingan Keterampilan dan Pasar Kerja; Evaluasi Monitoring dan Evaluasi
  • 05. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Permintaan serta Penawaran Tenaga Kerja
  • 06. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Upah dan Produktivitas
  • 07. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Mobilitas Keterampilan
  • 08. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Remitansi dan Brain Drain
  • 09. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Dampak Distribusi serta Integrasi Pekerja
  • 10. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Definisi Variabel dan Estimand
  • 11. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Spesifikasi Model Regresi
  • 12. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Confounding serta Endogenitas
  • 13. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Standard Error dan Ketidakpastian
  • 14. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Uji Sensitivitas Spesifikasi
  • 15. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Sumber Data Permintaan Keterampilan
  • 16. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Pemetaan Program Pendidikan
  • 17. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Keterampilan Transferable
  • 18. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Ketidakpastian Forecasting
  • 19. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Pembaruan Program berdasarkan Bukti
  • 20. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Kelompok Penerima Manfaat
  • 21. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Kelompok Penanggung Biaya
  • 22. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Perbedaan Dampak Antar Wilayah
  • 23. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Efek Jangka Pendek dan Panjang
  • 24. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Pilihan Kompensasi serta Transisi
  • 25. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Saldo Primer serta Kebutuhan Pembiayaan
  • 26. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Debt Dynamics
  • 27. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Asumsi Pertumbuhan dan Bunga
  • 28. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Contingent Liabilities
  • 29. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Stress Test Keberlanjutan Utang
  • 30. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Theory of Change Program
  • 31. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Indikator Input hingga Outcome
  • 32. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Baseline serta Sumber Data
  • 33. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Rancangan Evaluasi Dampak
  • 34. Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics: Penggunaan Temuan untuk Koreksi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Confounding serta Endogenitas (Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Migrasi Pekerja Terampil Menambah Pendapatan tetapi Mengurangi Kapasitas Lokal
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Pasar Kerja dan Migrasi; Keterampilan dan Pasar Kerja; Monitoring dan Evaluasi
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Migrasi Pekerja Terampil Menambah Pendapatan tetapi Mengurangi Kapasitas Lokal
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Labor Market Dynamics & Migration Economics)

BAB 09: Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation
  • 02. Why: Aturan Perdagangan Digital Bertentangan dengan Persyaratan Lokalisasi
  • 03. Outline: Perdagangan Digital; Governance Data; Konsumen Keuangan Digital; Persaingan pada Pasar Digital; Perpajakan Ekonomi Digital; Pemetaan Kerangka Hukum
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Perdagangan Digital; Perbandingan Konsumen Keuangan Digital; Evaluasi Pemetaan Kerangka Hukum
  • 05. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Transaksi Digital serta Pengiriman Layanan
  • 06. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Komitmen Arus Data
  • 07. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Persyaratan Lokalisasi
  • 08. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Perlindungan Konsumen
  • 09. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Pengecualian Kebijakan Publik
  • 10. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Tujuan dan Dasar Pemrosesan
  • 11. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Minimisasi serta Retensi Data
  • 12. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Hak Akses dan Keamanan
  • 13. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Transfer serta Pengungkapan Data
  • 14. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Akuntabilitas Pengendali dan Prosesor
  • 15. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Informasi Produk sebelum Transaksi
  • 16. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Biaya dan Risiko
  • 17. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Penanganan Fraud
  • 18. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Pengaduan serta Ganti Rugi
  • 19. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Pengawasan Perilaku Penyedia
  • 20. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Definisi Pasar dan Multi-Sided Platforms
  • 21. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Network Effects serta Switching Costs
  • 22. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Akses Data dan Hambatan Masuk
  • 23. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Self-Preferencing serta Eksklusi
  • 24. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Pilihan Remedi dan Pengawasan
  • 25. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Nexus dan Kehadiran Ekonomi
  • 26. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Pajak Penghasilan serta Konsumsi
  • 27. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Data Transaksi
  • 28. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Risiko Pajak Berganda
  • 29. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Koordinasi Internasional
  • 30. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Kewenangan serta Hierarki Aturan
  • 31. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Hak dan Kewajiban Pihak Terkait
  • 32. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Tanggal Efektif serta Peralihan
  • 33. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Konflik AntarInstrumen
  • 34. Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation: Forum Peninjauan Keputusan
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Hak Akses dan Keamanan (Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Aturan Perdagangan Digital Bertentangan dengan Persyaratan Lokalisasi
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Perdagangan Digital; Konsumen Keuangan Digital; Pemetaan Kerangka Hukum
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Aturan Perdagangan Digital Bertentangan dengan Persyaratan Lokalisasi
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Digital Trade & E-Commerce Regulation)

BAB 10: Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis

40 pelajaran
  • 01. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis
  • 02. Why: Pembatasan Perdagangan Mendorong Pengalihan Pasokan dan Biaya Kemanusiaan
  • 03. Outline: Analisis Sanksi Ekonomi; Model Gravity Perdagangan; Global Value Chains; Pasar Komoditas; Dampak Distribusional; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 04. Tujuan dan Capaian: Analisis Analisis Sanksi Ekonomi; Perbandingan Global Value Chains; Evaluasi Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 05. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Kaitan Yurisdiksi Transaksi
  • 06. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Pihak dan Sektor yang Dibatasi
  • 07. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Pengecualian serta Lisensi
  • 08. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Dampak Perdagangan serta Substitusi
  • 09. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Efek Kemanusiaan dan Ketidakpastian
  • 10. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Trade Costs dan Variabel Bilateral
  • 11. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Multilateral Resistance
  • 12. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Zero Trade dan Pilihan Estimator
  • 13. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Fixed Effects
  • 14. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Interpretasi serta Batas Kausalitas
  • 15. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Trade in Value Added
  • 16. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Backward dan Forward Linkages
  • 17. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Posisi dalam Rantai Produksi
  • 18. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Ketergantungan Input Impor
  • 19. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Pilihan Upgrading Industri
  • 20. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Penentu Harga Global
  • 21. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Transmisi ke Harga Domestik
  • 22. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Volatilitas dan Ekspektasi
  • 23. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Instrumen Stabilisasi
  • 24. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Biaya serta Risiko Intervensi
  • 25. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Kelompok Penerima Manfaat
  • 26. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Kelompok Penanggung Biaya
  • 27. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Perbedaan Dampak Antar Wilayah
  • 28. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Efek Jangka Pendek dan Panjang
  • 29. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Pilihan Kompensasi serta Transisi
  • 30. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Sumber Bahaya dan Eksposur
  • 31. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Probabilitas serta Besaran Dampak
  • 32. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Ketidakpastian Penilaian
  • 33. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Mitigasi dan Risiko Residual
  • 34. Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis: Pemicu Review serta Eskalasi
  • 35. Worked Example (Hipotetis): Zero Trade dan Pilihan Estimator (Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis)
  • 36. Quote Penting (Rumusan Editorial): Hasil Model Bergantung pada Struktur, Data, dan Asumsinya (Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis)
  • 37. Case Study (Hipotetis): Pembatasan Perdagangan Mendorong Pengalihan Pasokan dan Biaya Kemanusiaan
  • 38. Key Takeaways: Analisis Sanksi Ekonomi; Global Value Chains; Analisis Risiko Kebijakan
  • 39. Closing: Susun Rekomendasi atas Pembatasan Perdagangan Mendorong Pengalihan Pasokan dan Biaya Kemanusiaan
  • 40. References: WTO; IMF; OECD; dokumentasi model serta sumber data perdagangan (Economic Sanctions & Trade Restrictions Analysis)

Persyaratan

  • Memiliki pemahaman dasar tentang kebijakan publik atau riset sosial.

Deskripsi

Penerapan model ekonomi makro (CGE), analisis dampak perjanjian perdagangan bebas (FTA), dan simulasi kebijakan fiskal.

Instruktur

Konsuli Team

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Tim Instruktur Profesional Konsuli yang berdedikasi untuk memberikan pelatihan berkualitas tinggi di bidang hukum, konstruksi, manajemen proyek, dan standar industri global.

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